08/14/2008 - Beijing, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - James Blake has finally slayed the dragon.
The eighth-seeded Blake had been 0-8 against Super Swiss Roger Federer going into Thursday's tennis quarterfinal match at the Olympics, but the American pulled out a 6-4, 7-6 (7-2) victory.
It was a night filled with highs and lows for the Americans. On the women's side, the Williams sisters were bounced from singles play. Fourth-seeded Serena was taken down by fifth seed Elena Dementieva of Russia, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3. Seventh-seeded Venus, bidding for a third Olympic gold medal, was beaten by China's Li Na, 7-5, 7-5.
The start of the tennis session was delayed more than four hours by rain, but Blake was steadfast in his first win against Federer, who will fall from his perch atop the rankings next week when Spaniard Rafael Nadal takes over that slot.
Federer though won't get a chance for Olympic gold, as Blake surged ahead in the tiebreaker with a fabulous passing shot before falling to his knees in elation at the end.
"This is unbelievable," said Blake. "It's not very often you get to say you beat the No.1 player in the world anytime, but to do it at the Olympics with USA on your chest, I'm so proud to be part of this team."
Blake's semifinal encounter will be against 12th-seeded Chilean Fernando Gonzalez, a 6-4, 6-4 winner over Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu.
It was an amazing accomplishment for Blake, considering he'd won just one set against Federer prior to Thursday night.
"Maybe if you play him enough times he's bound to have an off day," said Blake. "He didn't play his best today, but I felt like I served well when I needed to, especially in that tiebreaker."
A break of serve in the ninth game of the first set sent Blake on his way to the lead. Federer dropped the first three games of the next set, but rallied from a 5-2 deficit to force the tiebreaker. The problem was 56 unforced errors set back Federer.
The other semifinal will be between Nadal, the second seed, and third-seeded Serbian Novak Djokovic. Nadal powered past Austrian Jurgen Melzer, 6-0, 6-4, while Djokovic rallied to beat Frenchman Gael Monfils, 4-6, 6-1, 6-4.
Also on the women's side, ninth seed Vera Zvonareva of Russia beat France's Sybille Bammer, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3. Zvonareva will play Dementieva in the semis.
Second seed Jelena Jankovic of Serbia was set to play sixth-seeded Russian Dinara Safina in the other quarterfinal, but rain put a halt to the match before it was supposed to start well after 1 a.m. local time. It was postponed to Friday.
<< Playoff hopefuls conclude set in South Beach
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Cardinals have to be frustrated with the way
the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers have been playing lately. The Cardinals are four
games behind the Brewers in the NL Wild Card standings, but their Central
division riva
<< Glavine returns from DL in finale with Cubs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves are expected to have Tom Glavine back on
the mound tonight, when they close out a three-game series versus the Chicago
Cubs at Turner Field.
Glavine has been on the disabled list since June 11 with a sor
<< Phils, Myers close series at Chavez Ravine
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time Brett Myers took the hill he had a fantastic
outing spoiled by his behavior. Tonight, Myers will try to keep his cool and
put the Philadelphia Phillies back in the win column in the finale of a four-
game series
<< Mets wrap up series with Nationals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The race for National League East supremacy seems much like
a see-saw, with teams either sharing the lead or trading the top spot on
several occasions.
The New York Mets are back at the top of the heap tied with the Philad
Roy has successful surgery >>
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Portland Trail Blazers guard Brandon Roy
underwent successful arthroscopic surgery on Thursday to repair a meniscus
tear in his left knee.
The All-Star from the University of Washington learned of th
Flyers extend head coach Stevens once more >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers reached an
agreement with head coach John Stevens on a two-year contract extension on
Thursday.
Per club policy, terms of the deal were not disclosed.
"I am very exc
Three share early lead in Sweden >>
Stockholm, Sweden (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Dougherty opened with a four-under-
par 66 Thursday to grab a share of the lead after the opening round of the SAS
Masters.
Dougherty was joined in the lead by Peter Hanson and Pedro Linhart.
Rob
Coyotes ink Perreault >>
Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Coyotes re-signed center Joel
Perreault to a two-year contract on Thursday.
The 6-foot-1, 197-pound Perreault appeared in 49 games for the Coyotes last
season and notched seven goals and 10
“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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