08/23/2008 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John survived a stretch long duel with Mambo in Seattle to win Saturday's $1 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course, The "Mid-Summer Derby" attracted an evenly matched field of 12 three-year-olds.
Colonel John, ridden by Garrett Gomez, went off as the 4-1 second choice behind 7-2 favorite Pyro. Harlem Rocker and Mambo in Seattle were both 5-1 with Jim Dandy Stakes champ Macho Again getting little attention at 7-1.
Da' Tara, winner of the Belmont Stakes, set the pace, closely followed by Tizbig in the 1 1/4 mile race. The two colts held their positions up the backstretch while Colonel John and Tres Borrachos dueled behind them.
Jockey Alan Garcia kept Da' Tara on the lead around the final turn and into the stretch. The two looked to be increasing their lead coming out of the turn.
With a quarter-mile to run Colonel John took a short lead as lightly raced Mambo in Seattle hooked him for the stretch drive. The two battled down the stretch and hit the wire together, with almost nothing to separate them.
The photo revealed that Colonel John prevailed over Mambo in Seattle by the smallest of margins. Jim Dandy runner-up Pyro finished third followed by Harlem Rocker, Da' Tara, Court Vision, Tale of Ekati, Macho Again, Tizbig, Amped, Cool Coal Man and Tres Borrachos.
The time for the 139th Travers was 2:03.20 on a fast Saratoga track.
Colonel John collects $600,000 with the victory for owner WinStar Farm and trainer Eoin Harty. The colt has now won five of nine career starts for $1,468,830.
"I'd rather be inside rather than outside in a big field," Harty said before the race, "don't want to get caught up in any traffic.
"I think the Travers, with the exception of the Kentucky Derby, is the three- year-old race to win. It's a race steeped in tradition. It's very important to a stallion's career. I just think it's one of those really great races that kind of define a horse and a trainer's career."
He was coming off a third-place finish in the Swaps at Hollywood Park as the 4-5. Earlier this year he won the Sham Stakes, but finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby.
Colonel John returned $10.40, $5.40 and $4.30. Mambo In Seattle paid $6.30 and $5.10, and Pyro paid $3.70 to show.
In other news in the three-year-old division, Big Brown will make his next start on Saturday, September 13 at Monmouth Park in the $200,000 Monmouth Stakes on the turf. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner will face older horses for the first time.
"We were looking for a grass race for him and the Monmouth grass surface should be perfect for Big Brown," said Michael Iavarone, co-president and co- CEO of IEAH Stables. "Monmouth was cordial enough to put up a nice purse for him and the fans really took to Big Brown last time he was there.
"We'll use this race to go to the synthetic surface at Santa Anita and the Breeders' Cup Classic."
As part of the conditions of the race, the $200,000 purse for the Monmouth Stakes will be increased to $500,000 should Big Brown start in the turf test.
"We're overjoyed that Big Brown will be returning to New Jersey," said Bob Kulina, vice president and general manager of Monmouth Park. "Big Brown coming back to the Jersey Shore will provide added excitement to September racing at Monmouth and should be an across the board winner for his connections, the fans, and the racing industry in New Jersey."
Big Brown won the Haskell Invitational in his last start at Monmouth.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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