Earnhardt Jr.'s first year with Hendrick ends on "disappointing" note

Autoracing Betting Lines

11/24/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Even though Dale Earnhardt, Jr. made the field for the 2008 "Chase for the Sprint Cup" championship, his first year with Hendrick Motorsports did not live up to expectations.

After spending his first eight full years of NASCAR Cup competition at Dale Earnhardt Inc., Earnhardt, Jr. left the team his father started in 1996 to join the mighty organization of Hendrick as driver of the No.88 Chevrolet at the start of this season.

With a new team, car number and sponsors, the "Junior Nation" was revitalized.

Earnhardt, Jr.'s new ride also sparked a lot of hype in the pre-season.

In January, three-time Cup champion and Fox Sports analyst Darrell Waltrip predicted Earnhardt, Jr. would win six races, including the Daytona 500. Earnhardt, Jr.'s crew chief, Tony Eury, Jr., said he would be disappointed if his team didn't win at least four races this year.

Earnhardt, Jr. began the year by winning the Budweiser Shootout (pre-season, non-points race) at Daytona International Speedway and then a victory in the first Gatorade Duel at Daytona, giving him the third starting spot in the Daytona 500. He finished ninth in that race.

In June, Earnhardt, Jr. snapped a 71-race winless streak at Michigan, but it turned out to be his only points-paying victory of the year.

Two months later, he started the Chase in the fourth seed after recording 13 top-10 finishes during the 26-race "regular season."

While a consistent number of solid finishes put Earnhardt, Jr. into this year's Chase, a string of bad luck in the final 10 races led to a 12th-place finish in points.

"I'm disappointed," team owner Rick Hendrick said last week at a media luncheon at Lowe's Motor Speedway. "I felt we were so good early on, and we just had tremendous little gremlins bite us from tire problems to things you just can't control."

"I think when we look back on the year and we look back at what he's accomplished, how he's fit into our organization and how happy he and Tony (Eury Jr.) are, we're going to make it better for next year."

Earnhardt, Jr., voted NASCAR's "Most Popular Driver" the past five years, will not attend next week's awards banquet in New York City as only the top-10 finishers in the Chase are honored.

"I was super excited about the way the season was going to start," Earnhardt, Jr. said. "I couldn't wait to get to work earlier this year. It was a long year, and we worked really hard. It went good at sometimes, and it went poorly other times. For the most part, I was real proud of just getting the season in the bank and getting done and looking forward to next year. I am really happy to be with Rick (Hendrick) and working with the guys I am working with."

Earnhardt, Jr. enjoyed his best Cup season with DEI in 2004 when he won six races, including the Daytona 500, and finished fifth in points.

While Earnhardt, Jr.'s teammate, Jimmie Johnson, aims for a record fourth- straight series championship, Mark Martin joins the Hendrick stables, replacing Casey Mears in the No.5 car.

With the addition of Martin, Hendrick has created a mega team with any one of his four drivers a strong possibility to win next year's title. But Hendrick thinks Martin's presence will help improve his organization. How that will effect Earnhardt, Jr. remains to be seen.

Though expectations might have been in his first year with Hendrick, Earnhardt, Jr. hopes next year he can return to his winning ways and finally capture his first Cup championship, joining his legendary father who won a record-tying seven titles.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.