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11/09/2011 - Avondale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, November 13. Race: Kobalt Tools 500. Site: Phoenix International Raceway. Track: one-mile oval. Start time: 3:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 312. Miles: 312. 010 Winner: Carl Edwards. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.
Remember when Tony Stewart famously said on his team radio, "Here, kitty, kitty, kitty. Come get you some of this," while chasing down Kevin Harvick for the lead during the closing laps of the 2007 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis, a race that Stewart went on to win.
Right now, Stewart might as well say, "Here, Carl, Carl," in regards to his battle with Carl Edwards for this year's Sprint Cup Series championship. Stewart is just three points behind Edwards with two races to go.
After finishing seventh at Talladega and then winning at Martinsville and Texas, Stewart has gained 21 points on Edwards in the last three races.
Will Stewart's momentum continue this weekend at Phoenix International Raceway?
"It shows what this Chase is going to be about," Stewart said. "It's the perfect storm, so to speak, going into these last two weeks. That's what you want. This is about as exciting as it gets, to have two guys that are down to three points with two weeks ago."
Stewart has four wins so far in this year's Chase for the Sprint Cup. He claimed victories in the first two playoff races -- Chicagoland and New Hampshire. Jimmie Johnson is the only other driver with four Chase wins in a season, doing so in 2004, '07 and '09.
This year's fall race at Phoenix should be a very interesting one. The flat one-mile track has been repaved and reconfigured since the series' most recent visit here in February.
Teams are certainly faced with the unknown heading to Phoenix, and this race could really shake up things in the fight for the championship.
"We really think next week at Phoenix has a larger opportunity by a landslide to change the outcome of this Chase," Edwards said. "That one will be a very important race. If Tony and I run 1-2 at Homestead, there's not going to be much points change if we run like we did [last Sunday at Texas], but Phoenix has the potential to be huge."
Several drivers, including Edwards and Stewart, participated in a Goodyear tire test at Phoenix in August. Sprint Cup teams were at this track last month for a two-day test session. Stewart posted the fastest lap overall in testing. No driver has yet to experience racing conditions on the newly paved surface.
"Phoenix is really a big unknown," Edwards said. "I would say this first trip will be more of a crew chief/engineer race. You're going to have to pay attention to tire wear. The setup is going to be very important. The track is very smooth and easy to drive. I don't know that you'll be able to go there and manhandle the car and hustle it around there like you could at the old Phoenix, at least not this first time."
While Edwards and Stewart have now made the Chase a two-man battle, Harvick is a distant third in points (-33), followed by Matt Kenseth (-38) and Brad Keselowski (-49).
Jimmie Johnson's hopes of winning a record-extending sixth straight Sprint Cup championship are all but gone. Johnson is now 55 points behind Edwards. He leads all drivers with four wins at Phoenix.
"From my experience there, I was a part of that first tire test and then the open test," Johnson said. "For whatever reason, if it is the asphalt or the tire, or both, and obviously the dirty air, the wind blowing dirt and being out in the middle of the desert, it takes a long time to burn in a lane that you can adjust to."
"My two times being there, you are chasing one balance of the race car, and then finally the track rubbers up. You have to back all of that out, and then you are finally on the path that you need to be on."
Edwards won last year's fall race at Phoenix. If Edwards or any other Roush Fenway Racing driver wins Sunday's Sprint Cup race or Saturday's Nationwide event here, it will mark team owner Jack Roush's 300th NASCAR victory.
Trevor Bayne gave Roush his 299th win in last Saturday's Nationwide race at Texas.
Forty-six teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Kobalt Tools 500.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
The AFC South and the NFC East are the favorite divisions to have the next Super Bowl champ among them in the NFL betting odds. But more down to the point, these football odds are in favor of the Indianapolis Colts, by far the strongest team in the AFC South, and the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC East.
Most sports fans would agree that these two teams top the list to win it all before the season even begins. In the BetUS Sportsbook football futures, the Colts are +800 in the odds to win the Super Bowl, while the Cowboys are sitting at +1000 and the Super Bowl XLIV champions New Orleans Saints at +900. In the AFC South, the Colts won the division for five straight years after the 2002 realignment, before the Tennessee Titans won it in 2008. But the Colts came back strong in 2009 to win the division again en route to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are the favorite to win the NFC East, as well as to advance far into the post season. The Cowboys won the division last season before their horrendous loss in the NFC Divisional playoff to Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. But the ‘Boys will take that loss humbly and be ready for the playoffs this time around.
The NFC South is also very strong, at +600 in the NFL futures, considering that it is home to the defending Super Bowl champions. However, some predictions have the Atlanta Falcons with possibilities of claiming the divisional title this season in place of the Saints, as no team has won back-to-back division championships since the division realignment took place. Let’s not overlook the AFC North at +500. As TO goes to Cincinnati to join Chad OchoCinco and Adam “Pac-Man” Jones, this team looks to claim the division title again. And it is likely they will do so. The Bengals lost in the AFC Wild Card spot in a hard-fought battle against the New York Jets last season. Lest not forget the Pittsburgh Steelers, the XLII Super Bowl Champions… All these teams present interesting odds and matchups for the upcoming season, but the safest and surest bet seems to be with the Colts in the AFC South and the Cowboys in the NFC East. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.
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