The Chase Joe Gibbs Racing Would Just as Soon Forget

Autoracing Betting Lines

09/29/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With three races now completed in this year's "Chase for the Sprint Cup," all three Joe Gibbs Racing drivers - Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart - are for all intents and purposes done in the championship.

After recording eight victories in the regular season, Busch started the "Chase" at New Hampshire with a 30-point lead. But engine and mechanical problems have plagued him in the last three races, resulting in finishes of 34th (New Hampshire), 43rd (Dover) and 28th (Kansas). He is now last in the 12-driver "Chase" standings, 311 points behind leader Jimmie Johnson, who won at Kansas.

The tumble in points has been a huge disappointment for Busch, who was a favorite to win the title when the "Chase" began earlier this month.

Stewart dropped four positions to 11th in the "Chase" after a 40th-place run at Kansas. On Lap 129, he made contact with Brian Vickers and slid through the infield grass. Stewart's crew removed grass and other debris from the front end of his car during his pit stop. He had to pit again later, and fell seven laps behind as his crew repaired a broken splitter caused by the incident. Stewart is 255 points behind Johnson.

Despite dealing with an ill-handling car, Hamlin had the best result among Gibbs' drivers at Kansas with an 11th-place finish. But he also finished 38th last week at Dover, after suffering rear-end issues during the mid-stages of the race. Hamlin is currently 10th in the rankings (-243).

The battle for this year's Sprint Cup Series championship has come down to Johnson, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle, who coincidentally finished one-two- three at Kansas. Just 30 points separate the top-three drivers, with Talladega the next stop on the series schedule.

While it comes as a major surprise to see Busch at the bottom of the standings, it's not as much of a shock to notice where Hamlin and Stewart now rank.

Hamlin struggled to make the "Chase" as he fell to 12th in the standings after a 39th-place finish last month at Michigan. He finished third in the final three races of the regular season to secure him the sixth seed in the playoffs. Hamlin has scored one victory for the season, coming in March at Martinsville, VA.

Stewart has yet to win a race this season, but finished a close second to Johnson earlier this month at Richmond. He would like to notch one more victory for team owner Gibbs before he departs at the end of the season to start his own team.

Gibbs has won three Cup championships this decade, two with Stewart (2002 and '05) and one with Bobby Labonte (2000).

During a season in which JGR has dominated the Nationwide series in record fashion, scoring 17 victories so far this year, the team has experienced a setback in Sprint Cup since the "Chase" began.

In the end, Gibbs will have to find a way to rally his troops in preparation for next season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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